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The Rise Of Europe’s Religious Right

“For too long a time in Europe, pro-life people did not really say clearly and directly what they believe.” After years on the margins of European politics, social conservatives are learning to fight back.

Posted originally on Buzzfeed News on July 28, 2014, at 10:36 a.m. ET

ROME — On a hot Friday in late June, the walls of a 15th-century marble palace in a secluded corner of the Vatican were lit up with the face of Breitbart News Chairman Steve Bannon.

“We believe — strongly — that there is a global tea party movement,” declared Bannon, who took over the American conservative new media empire after the death of its founder, Andrew Breitbart, in 2012. Speaking via Skype to a conference on Catholic responses to poverty, he said, “You’re seeing a global reaction to centralized government, whether that government is in Beijing or that government is in Washington, D.C., or that government is in Brussels… On the social conservative side, we’re the voice of the anti-abortion movement, the voice of the traditional marriage movement.”

Events across the Atlantic do look familiar to American eyes: an uprising against long-established parties in Brussels amid economic stagnation. But these elements have been around a long time in European politics. What is new — and what feels so American — is represented by the group Bannon was addressing: Europe is getting its own version of the religious right.

“There is an unprecedented anger because the average citizen [sees] what is being done in their name without their consent,” said Benjamin Harnwell, who founded the group that organized the conference, called the Human Dignity Institute. Harnwell is a former aide to a longtime Eurosceptic member of the European Parliament, who founded the organization in 2008 to promote the “Christian voice” in European politics. It is one of many new groups that have sprouted on the continent in recent years with missions they describe as “promoting life,” “traditional family,” and “religious liberty” in response to the advance of laws to recognize same-sex marriage and abortion rights. Some are technically secular organizations, but their strength, their leaders concede, largely comes from churchgoers.

The analogy with the tea party isn’t perfect for these groups, and some bristle at the comparison because they aren’t uniformly conservative on other issues. Harnwell prefers “silent majority,” but said he draws inspiration from the tea party movement because they also see their battle in part as a fight with a political establishment that has long ignored them.

These groups are still learning to work together, but after years on the political margins in much of Europe, they have suddenly begun flexing political muscles that progressives — and maybe social conservatives themselves — never knew they had. They have made themselves a force to be reckoned with in Brussels by learning key lessons from American conservatives, such as how to organize online and use initiative drives. European progressives, who long thought debates over sexual rights had mostly been settled in their favor, were blindsided.

“A bomb with a long fuse has been lit,” said Sylvie Guillaume, a French MEP supportive of abortion rights and LGBT rights, who recently stepped down as vice chair of the largest center-left bloc in the European Union’s parliament. “We don’t know what’s going to happen.”

One month before Bannon addressed the Human Dignity Institute, elections for the European Parliament sent a shockwave through the political establishment in Brussels. Far-right parties calling for an end to the European Union doubled their numbers to hold around 20% of seats. Parties like France’s National Front and Britain’s UKIP won pluralities in their countries.

Some of these parties ran on explicitly anti-LGBT platforms, particularly in Eastern Europe. (Hungary’s ultranationalist Jobbik Party, for example, printed posters featuring a blond woman with a Hungarian flag standing opposite drag Eurovision champion Conchita Wurst with an EU flag, along with the caption: “You Choose!”) For the most part, though, issues dear to social conservatives were a side issue in elections driven heavily by economic frustration. Some on the far right even support LGBT rights, most notably Geert Wilders of the Dutch Party for Freedom, who has tried to recruit LGBT voters for his anti-Muslim, anti-immigrant platform.

Social conservatives made themselves a force months before the election. In December, the European Parliament took up a resolution known as the Estrela Report that called on member states to provide comprehensive sex education in schools, ensure access to safe abortions, and take other steps that its supporters consider basic to safeguarding sexual health and rights. The resolution would have had no practical impact — the EU’s own rules bar it from regulating such issues — and its supporters considered it consistent with previously adopted resolutions. The vote was expected to be perfectly routine.

Then, as if someone had thrown a switch, emails started pouring into MEPs’ offices calling for the resolution to be rejected weeks before the final vote on Dec. 10. After an acrimonious floor debate, the center-right bloc helped defeat the Estrela Report by a small margin in favor of a conservative alternative that essentially said the EU has no business talking about these issues. The result stunned progressives, who couldn’t recall another time that the parliament had rejected language supportive of reproductive rights.

In a sense, someone had indeed thrown a switch. A few months earlier, a new online petition platform called CitizenGo sent out its first action alert. CitizenGo was conceived of as a kind of MoveOn.org for conservatives. It was based in Spain, but it had aspirations to be a global platform and now has staff working in eight languages, with plans to add Chinese and Arabic. It has an organizer in the U.S., too, named Gregory Mertz, who works out of the Washington offices of the National Organization for Marriage — Mertz actually wrote some of CitizenGo’s Esterla Report petitions. In the weeks leading up to the Estrela vote, several petitions appeared on CitizenGo, garnering 40,000 signatures here, 50,000 there.

These kinds of campaigns are so common in the U.S. that they are little more than background noise. But they were new in Brussels, especially in the hands of conservatives. Grassroots mobilization on sexual rights hadn’t been common on either side, and progressive advocacy groups had won many important victories relying heavily on an elite lobbying strategy.

MEPs had no idea what hit them and many of them folded, said Neil Datta, of the European Parliamentary Forum for Population and Development, which promotes reproductive rights.

“If you have a big cannon, the first [time] you shoot it, everyone runs away scared,” Datta said.

CitizenGo’s founder, Ignacio Arsuaga, had spent more than a decade adapting online organizing techniques from U.S. to Spanish politics before launching the group. He had been drawn into internet advocacy while studying at Fordham Law School in New York in the late 1990s. He had been “amazed” by MoveOn.org, he said in a phone interview from Spain, and he began signing petitions by groups such as the Christian Coalition, Americans United for Life, and other organizations that were “defending the rights of religious people — specifically Catholics — to express our faith in the public sphere.”

“That’s real democracy — that’s what I lived in the U.S.,” Arsuaga said. “Spanish citizens aren’t used to participating. They’re used to voting to every four years, and that’s it.”

To change this, he created an organization called HazteOír (a name that means “make yourself heard”) in 2001. It ran some campaigns throughout the early 2000s, often under separately branded sites, but it was the group’s mobilization against a 2010 bill to liberalize abortion laws passed by Spain’s socialist government that made the group a beacon to conservatives around the world. It helped get hundreds of thousands of protesters on the streets of Madrid and kept up the drumbeat through the 2011 elections when the conservative party Partido Popular won control. Its efforts appear to have paid off. In December 2013, the cabinet approved legislation that opponents say would give Spain the most restrictive abortion laws of any democracy in the world, and it seems to be on track for final approval by the parliament this summer.

Arsuaga has steadily been working to build a broader movement. His group hosted the 2012 World Congress of Families in Madrid, a global summit of social conservative leaders organized by an institute in Rockford, Ill. It bussed supporters across the border to France in 2013 when a new organization, La Manif Pour Tous (Protest for All), organized large protests against a marriage equality law reminiscent of Spain’s anti-abortion protests.

The protests organized by these two groups were a turning point for conservatives throughout Europe, said Luca Volontè, a former Italian MP who now runs a social conservative foundation in Rome and sits on CitizenGo’s board. They showed that a progressive victory was not inevitable. And, in their aftermath, conservatives have won victories, especially in Eastern Europe — in recent months, Croatia and Slovakia both enacted marriage equality bans in their constitutions.

“So many people in Europe are standing up, because this ideology appears and [is] felt, really, as totalitarian,” Volontè said, referring to advances for marriage equality.

La Manif Pour Tous is now following the same path as HazteOír, continuing the fight against marriage equality in France even though it became law in May 2013 and reorganizing itself as a permanent, international organization. The group launched a “Europe for Family” campaign in the lead-up to the EU elections in May, and 230 French candidates signed its pledge opposing marriage equality, trans rights, and sex education.

Twenty-three signatories won won seats in those elections, 11 of them members of the far-right National Front.

The suddenness with which social conservatives became a force in Brussels has many progressives speculating that they are the creations of American social conservatives seeking to “export the culture wars.”

“As far as I understand [social conservative groups] have quite some money in them [from] the U.S., similar to all those missionary and evangelical groups that do work in Uganda,” said Ulrike Lunacek, an Austrian Green Party MEP who is now vice president of the European Parliament. Lunacek, who co-chaired the Parliament’s Intergroup on LGBT Rights in the last session, authored a report on LGBT rights that groups like CitizenGo and La Manif Pour Tous tried unsuccessfully to defeat this winter.

A review of tax disclosures conducted by the progressive advocacy group People for the American Way found that several U.S. groups — many of which boomed in the 1990s — had recently invested in conservative drives across Europe: The American Center for Law and Justice, founded by Pat Robertson, sent $1.1 million to its European branch, the European Center for Law and Justice, in 2012, which is the most recent year for which tax disclosures are available. Another group founded by well-known American social conservatives called the Alliance Defending Freedom spent more than $750,000 on European programs that year. The Federalist Society, which promotes conservative legal philosophy, reported spending nearly $800,000 in “conferences and seminars” in Europe that year. Personhood USA, a small Colorado-based group that has tried to pass ballot measures that would give fetuses the legal status of “persons” — a strategy for rolling back abortion rights that is controversial even among pro-life activists — poured $400,000 into Europe in 2012, just after one of its ballot measures went down in flames in Mississippi. (Personhood USA President Keith Mason declined to answer questions from BuzzFeed about which organizations received the funds or what they were used for.)

But while there are links to the U.S., the movement is very much homegrown. Arsuaga said neither HazteOír nor CitizenGo get funding from U.S. groups — and they don’t need it. Arsuaga said 99% of HazteOír’s 1.9 million euro ($2.5 million) annual budget comes from donations from Spanish citizens. CitizenGo has been raising 30,000 to 40,000 euros (roughly $40,000 to $55,000) each month from the 1.2 million members it’s signed up worldwide since its October launch.

Today, American ties seem much more about a shared vision to build a global conservative movement rather than leaning on stronger and wealthier U.S. partners for support. Arsuaga, Volontè, and La Manif Pour Tous President Ludovine de La Rochère were all in Washington on June 19 to support the National Organization for Marriage’s March for Marriage. Their more important business, however, might have been in a closed-door summit the next day, where representatives of around 70 countries met to discuss creation of an International Organization for Marriage, according to Volontè and another participant. A follow-up meeting is planned for next year.

Many LGBT rights supporters mocked the March for Marriage’s paltry turnout. So these Europeans appeared as if they were there to encourage a beleaguered movement, not the other way around — they now possess the vigor that has evaporated from the U.S. movement as opposition to marriage equality has collapsed.

European social conservatives contend that they may have a new energy and sophistication, but Europeans have never been pro-abortion rights or pro-marriage equality. Dissenters just weren’t given the floor, and they didn’t know how to fight back. “[We] didn’t know how to arrive here at the European [Union] level and make their voice heard in parliament,” said Sophia Kuby, director of a four-year-old organization based in Brussels, European Dignity Watch.

Polling data doesn’t appear to bear this out, at least in Western Europe. Support for marriage equality ranges between 52 and 79% in all seven Western European countries included in a June Ipsos poll. Less than a third of respondents from the two Eastern European countries included — Poland and Hungary — support same-sex marriage (and both countries have banned it in their constitutions), but more than 50% support some form of legal recognition for same-sex couples. Opinion seems to range more on abortion, which is available in most countries at least before 12 weeks, though waiting periods and other restrictions are not uncommon. An April Pew study found substantial pluralities in countries including France, Spain, and the Czech Republic say they believe abortion is “morally acceptable,” while there are even more lopsided pluralities saying abortion was “morally unacceptable” in places such as Poland and Greece.

But anti-abortion activists effectively used a new mechanism for direct democracy that the EU introduced in 2012 — called the European Citizens Initiative (ECI) — to make a show of popular support. One of the first ECIs ever launched, dubbed “One of Us,” was a proposal to cut off EU funding to any activity that destroys a human embryo, which in practical terms would mean ending support for stem cell research and foreign aid to family planning programs that perform abortions. If organizers could get at least 1 million signatures from seven countries, the EU’s executive body, the European Commission, would have had to hold a hearing on it.

The signature drive was led by Grégor Puppinck of the European Center for Law and Justice, but the continental campaign itself was funded entirely by Spanish and Italian foundations. It quickly sailed past the 1 million signature hurdle, collecting over 1.8 million signatures from more than 20 countries by the time the hearing was held on April 9. Despite this impressive show of popular support, there was little doubt that the commission would reject the proposal even as the witnesses for One of Us walked into the hearing room — Science Commissioner Máire Geoghegan-Quinn had said as much in a January press conference.

The commission summarily dismissed the proposal in a seven-page statement issued on May 28 — just three days after the European elections, which left some organizers feeling like the commission was deliberately trying to prevent it from affecting the vote.

But that doesn’t mean it was a defeat for opponents to abortion rights. Well before the process had come to an end, the One of Us campaign signalled on its website that it had bigger goals than just changing EU funding policy.

The drive “could be a starting point of a new Europe-wide mobilization of the pro-life movement,” the site said. “Every experience we collect here can be used for campaigns on other pro-life issues in further course. In that sense, it can be expected that the outcome may be very enduring.”

It also taught anti-abortion rights activists that they didn’t have to pull their punches.

“For too long a time in Europe, pro-life people did not really say clearly and directly what they believe because [they feared] it was too much” for most Europeans to accept, Puppinck said in an interview in his Strasbourg office. “We are more direct, more open, more clear, we don’t really try to negotiate on the truth…. This is why, for us, the most important [thing] is to be able to speak.”

And from a political standpoint, the rejection of the One of Us initiative may have been a blessing for social conservatives hoping to build a movement. The U.S. anti-abortion movement was built in response to the 1973 Supreme Court decision establishing abortion rights, a ruling that thrust abortion into the center of American politics for the last 40 years. And they can now frame it as a question, not just abortion.

That’s exactly how the Parliament’s largest bloc, the center-right European People’s Party, is already poised to embrace One of Us’ cause. The EPP chair, German MEP Manfred Weber, told BuzzFeed he was “disappointed” that the European Commission did not act “when there are so many people standing behind an initiative.”

“We have to bring people closer to the European process,” Weber said, adding that the EU must not go beyond its mandate. “Europe should not be the political body which is intervening … in this question of family rights, of abortion. Very crucial and very important.”

This battle now heads to the courts. On Friday, Puppinck filed a challenge before the EU’s judicial arm asking that it take away the European Commission’s veto power over initiatives. The suit “is not only about the right to life, but firstly about democracy,” Puppinck stated in a press release announcing the suit.

In this fight, Puppinck said, “You can really say it’s the opposition between the people and the elite.”

Categories
Human Rights LGBTQ

The Fight For Marriage Equality In The Pope’s Backyard

The fact that Vatican City is just a walk across the bridge from Italy’s Parliament goes a long way to explain why Italy is still the only nation in Western Europe with no partnership rights for same-sex couples — but that may be about to change.

Posted originally on Buzzfeed News on July 1, 2014, at 9:11 p.m. ET

ROME — After Sergio Lo Giudice’s baby was born in May, he appeared before a California judge to ask that his name be removed from his son’s birth certificate.

Lo Giudice is a 53-year-old LGBT activist turned politician, who now represents Bologna in the Italian Senate. When he and his husband decided to have a baby via a surrogate mother, they chose to do it in California because it was illegal for them to do so under Italian law. California recorded Lo Giudice and Michele Giarratano as the child’s parents, but the two men feared they would have trouble bringing him home and establishing his Italian citizenship because Italy doesn’t recognize same-sex parents.

Their country doesn’t recognize their marriage either. Italy is the only country in Western Europe that provides no legal recognition of any kind to same-sex couples; almost every large country in the region has enacted full marriage equality. But that may change this fall: Lo Giudice is part of a group in the Senate Justice Commission that reached agreement on a draft bill on partnership legislation last month, and Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has said he wants Parliament to begin debating in September.

The fact that Vatican City is just a short walk across the bridge from Parliament goes a long way to explain why Italy has remained so far behind its neighbors on this question. And the battle over this bill pulls at the seams of Italy’s twin nature as a cosmopolitan European state with obligations under international accords that increasingly protect LGBT rights and its place as the seat of the Catholic Church. It is also opening fault lines within the Holy See itself, with an old guard committed to the culture wars fought zealously by Pope Benedict set against Pope Francis’ efforts to move away from the divisive fights over sexuality that he believes drive many away from the church.

While Francis’ vision hasn’t changed any church doctrine, his rhetorical disarmament has made it far easier for Italian politicians to back partnership rights. Those working on the bill believe marriage equality is still politically impossible, and their civil union proposal would also prohibit two-parent adoption by same-sex couples. But it would allow stepchild adoption in cases where one spouse is already the legal parent of a child, so Lo Giudice could once again be recognized as his son’s father.

But some same-sex couples and local officials aren’t waiting for Parliament to act. The mayor of Naples has declared that his city would start transcribing foreign marriages of same-sex couples into its wedding rolls. Naples is the first large city to take this step after a lower court ordered officials in the small Tuscan city of Grosseto to record a foreign marriage in April.

“It seems that in Italy there is a common line of thought in the battle against homophobia: toward equality,” said Naples Mayor Luigi de Magistris in announcing the move. “But we never succeed in converting that into law.”

The registration of foreign marriages by local officials may have an impact that is more symbolic than legal, worry some to LGBT activists, in part because the Supreme Court issued a ruling in mid-June that undercut it.

That decision came over the case of a couple who now are both named Alessandra, but who were legally married when one of them was Alessandro. When Alessandra Bernaroli legally changed her gender designation in 2009, after the couple had been married for nine years, the courts annulled their marriage, despite their objections. In June, the Constitutional Court ruled that their rights had been violated when they were forced to divorce, which initially led some LGBT rights supporters to celebrate the decision. It said, however, that their marriage was still invalid until Parliament passed a law recognizing same-sex unions and ordered Parliament to swiftly enact new legislation.

Back in 2010, the courts had already ordered Parliament to pass such legislation, which lawmakers ignored. (The Italian courts are much weaker than in places like the United States, where Supreme Court rulings translate directly into changes in law.) And the new ruling undercut the old one in a way that had many LGBT advocates feeling like it was more of a setback than a victory. The 2010 ruling left it up to Parliament whether to enact marriage equality or create a new institution to recognize same-sex unions. The June ruling instructed Parliament to create “a different form of registered partnership” that is “not the same as marriage,” and included language that suggested the Italian constitution rules out marriage between people of the same sex.

But civil unions are better than nothing, said Ivan Scalfarotto, secretary for parliamentary relations in the Renzi government and Italy’s first out gay government minister. Scalfarotto said that he would prefer marriage equality and full adoption rights. But he said as he approaches the age of 50, he doesn’t want to wait any longer for basic protections for his relationship.

“I would not like to [wait to] live in the perfect world when I’m 80,” Scalfarotto said. “I’d really love to make sure that the person I love has the right to be recognized as my partner, [and] if I pass away — now — I want him to be able to live in our house, and I want everyone to respect that. … In principle, I would like to have everything, but principles are a luxury … [that] at this moment, unfortunately, in my country we cannot afford.”

Despite the presence of the Vatican, public opinion doesn’t show any evidence that Italians are much more disapproving of same-sex relationships than nearby countries with marriage equality. Seventy-four percent of Italians who responded to a 2013 Pew survey said they believed “homosexuality is a way of life that should be accepted by society” — about the same as France, which has had civil unions since 1998 and passed marriage equality last year. A 2013 Ipsos poll found that 48% of Italians supported marriage rights for same-sex couples and an additional 31% oppose marriage but support an alternative form of partnership recognition, on par with Great Britain.

The change in tone ushered in by Pope Francis has helped create an environment where this public opinion can be translated into political action.

“It’s a different atmosphere that was created this year,” Lo Giudice said, explaining that it has made it much easier to bring along members of his own party who are close to the church.

Francis’ statement early in his pontificate, “If someone is gay and he searches for the Lord and has good will, who am I to judge?” was interpreted as a kind of rhetorical distancing from the position of his predecessor. Pope Benedict, who had been the Vatican’s chief officer for enforcing doctrine before becoming pope, was known for placing great emphasis on fights on homosexuality and abortion, and helped install hardliners on these issues throughout the hierarchy throughout his papacy. This spring, Francis suggested a time might come when the church would even drop its opposition to some form of civil unions.

“Marriage is between a man and a woman,” the pope said in an interview published in Italian by Corriere della Sera. “The secular states want to justify civil unions to regulate different situations of living together. … We have to look at the different cases and evaluate them in their variety.”

LGBT rights activists familiar with Francis’ history when he led the bishops’ conference of Argentina interpreted such remarks in light of reports that he had tried — unsuccessfully — to get Argentina’s church hierarchy to endorse a civil union bill because it was preferable to the marriage equality bill that ultimately became law.

It’s not clear how far Francis might be prepared to go in reconciling with LGBT people — there certainly is no sign that he is any less committed to doctrine about homosexuality than Benedict was. But even if he did believe the church could endorse some forms of civil unions, there are many inside the church installed by Benedict who would never sanction such a shift. And Francis doesn’t have the power to make such a shift alone, despite being the head of the church.

When one LGBT rights activist, Human Rights Watch’s Boris Dittrich, asked Archbishop Gerhard Müller, whom Benedict picked to take over the job of the church’s doctrinal chief, whether a rethinking of civil unions could be in the works, Dittrich said Müller replied, “That’s not up to the pope, that’s up to us. We are the ones who set the policy.” There were rumors Francis wanted Müller out, but in January he elevated him to the rank of cardinal.

But there are also signs of a thaw within Vatican City. Monsignor Marcel Sánchez Sorondo, chancellor of the Pontifical Academies of Science and Social Science, Vatican offices that engage with research on society, told Buzzfeed in an interview last week at an event inside the Vatican walls in which Italian politicians were participating that the church is solidly against any law that makes “complete [equivalence] of the normal [matrimony] and the gay,” but if legislation clearly distinguishes between them, “that is another question, and this is accepted by the church.”

Whether this proposal will make enough of a distinction between marriage and civil unions to satisfy even the moderates within the church is an open question. The only major right that this will exclude is two-parent adoption. Otherwise, Prime Minister Renzi has said, he wants a bill that will give same-sex couples rights that are “the same as [for] married heterosexual couples.”

Avvenire, the newspaper owned by the Italian bishops’ conference, blasted the civil union proposal in a front-page editorial last month, saying the bill would introduce “a mini-marriage and prepare the inevitable hollowing-out of traditional marriage.”

And regardless of shifts within the church hierarchy itself, there are still many lay Catholics — especially older ones — who may mobilize to try to stop the bill. A Univision poll found that although 50% of Italian Catholics between 18 and 34 support same-sex marriage, it is opposed by 65% of those between 35 and 54 and by 78% of those over 55. And LGBT rights opponents are emboldened by the massive protests organized in opposition to the marriage equality legislation enacted in France last year.

“So many people in Europe are standing up, because this ideology [in support of LGBT rights is] felt really as totalitarian,” said Luca Volontè, a former Italian MP from the Union of Christian Democrats and Center Democrats, who now heads a foundation devoted to opposing abortion and LGBT rights. Volontè is also on the board of CitizenGo, a globalizing online mobilizing platform that grew out of the Spanish organization instrumental in promoting a bill to restrict abortion enacted in 2010. The group has staff in Italy, and is in the planning stages to oppose the civil union proposal.

“It cannot happen,” said Dina Nerozzi, a Rome psychiatrist who is a lay adviser to the Pontifical Council for the Family. “People will fight for that. I mean fight — [we] will take weapons out.”

Ivan Scalfarotto isn’t counting on changes in the church to create the majority he needs to get the civil union bill passed.

“I don’t see … a path leading to a recognition of families different from the straight model, man and woman,” Scalfarotto said. “It is progress, I think definitely, however I don’t this will be [reflected] in the approval process of a piece of legislation.”

But he doesn’t need the parties closest to the church to pass the bill. The elections of 2013 helped clear away another major impediment to LGBT rights: former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, whose right-wing coalition cycled in and out of power for 20 years.

“We’ve been ruled by Mr. Berlusconi for many years, and his culture has been a very a macho culture, very, let’s say, traditionally Mediterranean in a way, very Latin, according to the stereotypes,” Scalfarotto said.

The dominance of right-wing parties sets Italy apart from other Catholic countries in Western Europe. Spain, for example, has a population that is actually far more Catholic than Italy — 94% in Spain as compared with around 80%. But it enacted full marriage equality in 2005, making it the third country in the world to do so.

But these countries, Scalfarotto points out, “eventually [had] pure left-wing governments and they were in the position to challenge the church introducing these rights.” Both Spain and France were ruled by socialist governments when marriage equality became a reality.

That was never true in Italy. Berlusconi’s main rival on the left, Romano Prodi, tried to pass a civil union bill following his election as prime minister in 2006. But the effort stalled, and Prodi’s government failed less than two years after taking power.

Italy still doesn’t have a truly left-wing government. The Democratic Party controls only around 40% of seats in Parliament, and was forced to join with a faction of lawmakers once loyal to Berlusconi in order to form a government. This group’s leader, Angelino Alfano, who was given the post of interior minister, has threatened to bring down the government if the Democratic Party attempted to pass same-sex marriage.

This is part of the reason why Democratic lawmakers aren’t even trying for marriage equality.

“We, the Democratic Party, are … very uncomfortable, because we govern with part of the right-center party,” said Monica Cirrinà, the member of the Senate Justice Commission who is leading the work of drafting the civil union legislation. “The bills … about the marriages of people of the same sex had been put aside, because there is no way they will ever pass in this chamber.”

Democratic lawmakers don’t expect that Alfano’s party will back a civil union bill, but they think they will allow it to pass with help from opposition parties. And in a sign of how fast the context is Italy is changing, some of those votes could come from the Berlusconi’s own factions.

Berlusconi himself caught Italians by surprise on Sunday when he issued a statement declaring, “The [fight] for civil rights for homosexuals is a battle that, in a truly modern and democratic country, should be everyone’s responsibility.”

Scalfarotto seemed to welcome the prospect of Alfano’s party bringing down the government over this issue. The Democratic Party just came out on top in recent elections for the parliament of the European Union, a sign that it’s enjoying high popularity. If they really bring down the government over this, they may have a hard time explaining that to the voters, Scalfarotto said, laughing.

“If they say we’re going to put [the country’s progress] in big danger because we don’t want to protect [LGBT] people, they will have to find votes based on that,” he said, adding that it’s inevitable that Italy will recognize same-sex couples eventually.

“Sooner or later it has to happen,” he said.